Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jung Hoo Lee, and Cole Ragans: April Standouts
Pete Crow-Armstrong
The good, the bad, and the silver lining.
The good- He is hitting very well to say the least. What was once a worry for PCA is now a somewhat strength. The young center-fielder has been on nothing short of a tear this year with his .284 BA, 5HRs, and 15 RBIs. As a once very highly touted prospect and a rocky 2024 full debut year, he seems to be finally hitting his stride in the box.
The bad- Most advanced analytics say these good times with the twig for PCA will not last. .250 xBA vs .284 BA and .420 xSLG vs .523 SLG means that his expected stats are a decent rate lower than what he is actually slashing this early in the season. Maybe this can be chalked up to early season statistics that don't have the volume to match, or maybe he really has just been pretty lucky thus far. The latter argument is backed up by a 3rd percentile chase% with less than ideal barrel and hard hit rates (8.3% and 34th percentile hard-hit%). PCA has continued to open up his stance a bit, but aside from a 9 degree angle change from 2024, nothing essential about his swing has changed to spark this hitting outburst. He also doesn't walk nearly enough for his speed upside, as his 5% BB% essentially mirrors the challenges he faced in 2024.
The silver lining- His youth and aforementioned speedy upside. PCA is only 23 and in his second league in the majors. It is more than normal to be streaky and inconsistent with up and down hitting splits and advanced analytics. With this, he is still (even in his youth) among the best in the league in terms of what he offers on the basepaths and in the field. The 12 SBs thus far and 96th percentile sprint speed speaks for themselves, and his 9%CPA (catch percent added) with a still wildly premier 93.3 arm strength (statcast) is plenty of reason to still buy PCA stock.
Jung Hoo Lee
A high quality regression to mean.
His slightly over-inflated xSLG is the main cause for small concern here. He is slugging a very impressive .557 for someone who is touted as a contact-oriented outfielder. Yet, his xSLG is a not quite as insane .465 that is more worrisome when paired with a 30th percentile barrel % and 28th percentile hard-hit %. To go with this beware of JHL’s increase in strike out numbers and higher whiff rate. Likely though, Lee missing the ball more is just the cost of doing business. That business comes in the form of real jumps in LA Sweet-Spot % and being aggressive early with his 12 point bump in first pitch swing %. JHL has done a good job at adapting to the current state of Major League Baseball with his three true outcome statistical movements that manifest in: big moves in walks, homeruns, and unfortunately, K’s. JHL’s early in the count aggression means he’s not fully working counts, yet has drawn walks at higher rate. Nothing vital about JHL has changed from the little we saw of him last year, which is an overall good. He may regress a tad, as his slugging and power statistics are overinflated, but a full season of health from JHL, where he continues to settle in means he will be super effective at the plate. As for his non-hitting traits, he has been a little bit worse of a fielder, likely because of injury issues. No reason to forecast major changes, expect small dips in BA and SLG, but don’t be surprised if walks and small uptick in hr’s persist. A fully healthy season that includes all of the hitting prowess that the grandson of the wind has shown makes for a dream center field situation in SF.
Cole Ragans
Arm angle switch with a Fastball frenzy
I loved the way that Cole Ragans pitched in 2024. For a guy who was somewhat unknown on a frisky royals team, his low 3 era and all star nod spoke for itself. More specifically, I felt like he was prone for a fantastic full 2025 breakout that would put him in a top 2 cy young conversation. Thus far in 2025? His K% has been nothing short of fantastic. A 6.6% bump from his already fantastic 29.3% K rate has been very welcome. Also, he has added a near tick to his fastball velocity and found decreases in xBA, xWOBA, and xSLG. The bump in K rate is likely due to his tweaked arm angle that now sits at 39 degrees. Based on this, many have found success in the decreased arm angle turning into success, specifically with the fastball. Bryan Woo is a prime example of this, as his 27 degree arm angle allows him to throw his heater a near 50% of the time, at good efficiency. Although Ragans has adopted a similar philosophy in 2025, with his new 39 degree arm angle, which once sat at 48 degrees back in 2022, and his 4 seam fastball %, which is up about 8% to 49.1% on the year, he has not found the same success, yet. In 30 innings, Ragans holds a 4.40 ERA. Still, his 2.71 FIP and premier strikeout and whiff numbers show that all Ragans needs is time. If he can get his offspeed stuff honed in, Cy Young is not out of the question by any realm.
