The Anatomy of a Fall: Sandy Alcantara
A look inside the Once Unanimous Cy-Young’s Fall From Grace
2017- Beginnings in South Beach
After a major league debut that included 8 innings with the St. Louis Cardinals, 9th ranked Cardinals prospect Sandy Alcantara heads to Miami as part of a blockbuster offseason trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. Ozuna, who was coming off two consecutive All-Star seasons, was the main piece of this trade, but sending prospects 6,9, and 13 was no rounding error. In fact, that 13th prospect was Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen.
2018- Top Prospect Title
By now, Alcantara had six starts on the bump for the Fish. In this time, he had climbed to be the second ranked prospect in the Marlins system, and held a 3.44 ERA in 34 innings. The early days of Alcantara were characterized by both a wildly impressive 85th percentile fastball, and a real walk problem that reared its ugly head in the form of a 15.8 Walk%.
Alcantara in his playoff debut (2019)
2019- A Workhorse’s Origin
The 23 year old Dominican showed major strides that even earned him an All-Star nod. Was this a product of the 105-loss Marlins needing a representative? Maybe. Was it also a product of an improved Chase% that came with increased slider usage and efficiency? Absolutely. The most important part of Alcantara’s 2019 was that he threw 197 innings and over 3,000 pitches.
Alcantara During the 2022 All Star Game
2022- Unanimous Cy Young Stardom
After two years of confusing yet steady growth, Sandy shined. Not only did he earn his second All-Star appearance, but he also earned the NL Cy Young Award by a unanimous measure. In 228 innings (the most from a Cy Young winner since 2016), Alcantara tossed over 200 strikeouts (23.4 K%) and held a 2.28 ERA (2.90 xERA). On top of this, 81st percentile barrel rate, 83rd percentile walk rate, and a 94th percentile chase rate meant Alcantara was tearing batters apart. How did this rise happen? For starters: 96th percentile fastball velocity, the league's best offspeed run value (27), and a beautifully orchestrated four-pitch mix that combined both his fastball and offspeed. Alcantara was a 26 year-old workhorse starter who also happened to have some of the best stuff in the show, what wasn’t to love?
2023- Significant Step Down
Alcantara’s 6th season was nowhere near as fun compared to his year prior. A forearm strain that later turned into a full UCL tear cut Alcantara’s season short, but a 4.14 ERA in 184 innings pre-injury was disappointing in itself. His 4.33 xERA and 40.6% Hard-Hit% were products of failing offspeed stuff that had defined a stellar 2022. Despite still having his fastball as one of the best in the league, -4 offspeed run value came via a failing changeup and slider combo that hitters hit .181 against in 2022, compared to its .255 2023 counterpart.
2025- Serious Struggles
After missing all of 2024, Tommy John surgery clearly did no favors to Alcantara who already had troubles pre-injury and post-Cy Young. Buy-in-large, the now 29 year-old Dominican starter has been abysmal. Sandy holds a 8.10 ERA in early May, and has shown a plethora of issues in his first 8 starts in 2025. In short: the walk demons that plagued Alcantara in his early years are back (12.7% walk rate compared to his 2022 5.6%). His once great fastball still ranks in the 91st percentile in terms of velocity but that same heater has a -2 run value where hitters are raking with a .292 BA thus far. A 14th percentile K%, 11th percentile Hard-Hit%, and 14th percentile Chase% are just the start of Alcantara’s issues. It is still early, but even a fall out of the Marlins horrific rotation isn’t out of the picture.
The Verdict
It’s no secret that Tommy John surgery was no help to an already falling Alcantara. It is, though, easy to wonder if that could’ve been prevented. If not for a Covid-shortened 2020, Alcantara would’ve neared 1000 innings over the four-year span of 2019-2023. All those innings while throwing 98 MPH fastballs and countless slicing offspeeds gives nightmares to any arm doctor worth their salt. On the more mental side: Alcantara signed a 56$ Million/ 5 year contract back in 2022, just before his Cy Young campaign, where he officially burst onto the scene. As someone who is set to make 17$ Million in 2026, and is stuck on one of Major League Baseball’s worst run franchises, why should Alcantara work his tail off other than his own legacy and personal gain, to which he already has 56 million reasons and one Cy Young worth of proof. Advanced Analytics, Injuries, and most fans in South Beach look down on Sandy Alcantara with a very unfond glare. Can he bounce back to what he looked like 3 years prior? Sure. Will he coast off how good he could’ve been if he ever replicated his 2022 season? I think so.
