What’s Next For the Giants?
Image Credit: Matt Fraser
From May 11th to May 16th, the Giants scored 33 total runs. 18 days and 15 games later, they have scored 32. To comprehend how bad 32 runs over 15 games is, all you need to know is that the 19-42 White Sox scored 58 runs in that same period, and the first 15 games of the Pirates 26 26-game streak of scoring 4 or less runs scored 38 runs. What’s even worse is that they’re pitching has been the best in baseball, sporting a 2.46 team ERA over this offensive drought, with a fifth of their runs given up coming from a single game against the Royals. For the year, the Giants hold the league’s second best ERA, all while placing 25th in batting average and OPS.
What’s Changed?
The biggest regression over the past couple of weeks has been Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski, with both of them going from OPSs well north of 800 to around or below league average. Most concerningly, JHL has simply stopped getting on base as much. His 12th percentile Barrel% and 7th percentile Hard-hit% shows he’s not making good enough contact to support his aggressive contact first play style, and his hitting numbers have deflated because of it. He’s not making good enough contact to support his aggressive contact-first play style, and it’s leading to fewer walks and more strikeouts. As for Yaz, this seems to be a pretty simple return to form, going from a 23% strikeout percentage in the first 45 games, to a 30.3% and walking 7% less over the past 15 games.
Nevertheless, baseball is a team game, and those two are just the start to the fall-off of the Giants' offense. Wilmer Flores is a non-factor without runners in scoring position, making it hard to produce when you never have any runners in scoring position. Not having a competent hitting first baseman has crippled our entire organization. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge looked great in the minors, but the last thing we can do is call him up too early. Not only because he may not be ready, but wasting valuable service time with the young core of pitching we have can hurt our future. Hopefully, we can fix our first base situation before Posey’s hand is forced to call him up. To pair, Tyler Fitzgerald and Willy Adames have simply regressed in every way, walking less, making less contact, and striking out more. The only bright side of this offense over the past 15 games is Helliot Ramos and Matt Chapman, who have found ways of staying consistent. All hope is not lost for Patrick Bailey either, who has slightly turned a corner hitting .225 the past 15 games, and most recently gone 6 for his last 20.
Matt Chapman and Willy Adames embrace for a hug
What’s the Fix?
It’s a weird part of the season where nobody traditionally trades any remotely major pieces, but if not now, when? Optioning Sam Huff and Christian Koss was a little unexpected, but DFA Lemonte Wade Jr was overdue. Replacing them with AAAA players in Dominic Smith, Daniel Johnson, and Andrew Knizner cannot be the long-term answer. Posey needs to move quickly and publicly decide what we want to do with this season. Our starting pitching depth gives us a lot of options when it comes to trade pieces, whether it’s trading parts of our young core or selling Justin Verlander. The most intriguing piece to get would’ve been Tristan Casas from the Red Sox. The Boston fans have forced them into win-now mode, and with the inconsistent starting pitching they have it’s hurting their chances to make a true run at it. Unfortunately, his recent injury has sidelined him for the foreseeable future. Josh Naylor and Rhys Hoskins are now the most probable fits. Josh Naylor is overperforming on a losing Diamondbacks team that’s struggling to keep up, especially with Corbin Burns's recent season-ending injury. He is in his last year of arbitration, and Paven Smith being their clear future at first base, they’ll be selling him at the deadline. Rhys Hoskins has also been a solid bat for the currently red-hot Brewers. His availability will rely on how the NL Central is shaping. If they slow down and it’s obvious the Cubs are gonna take the division, they could also be interested in some future pitching prospects, as their once strong pitching core has dwindled over the past couple of years.
Panic time?
The Giants are in a tough position, trying to play through an offensive implosion, with a lineup that is hard to break into, because they are either getting paid or have established themselves into the lineup. Posey and Bob Melvin need to decide if this is the year to make a run at the playoffs. We’ve been stuck in mediocrity for the past 3 years, and with a pitching staff this good, it’ll be tough to recreate the production we’re getting. To keep it simple: the push to make a playoff run is necessary. With how competitive the NL West is, if this offense doesn’t turn things around soon, this season will start to slip away, and Posey will be forced to make some moves.
